Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a staking formula that tells you what fraction of your bankroll to wager when you have an edge. It maximizes long-term growth by balancing risk and reward. If the result is negative, it suggests skipping the bet because the odds don’t justify the risk.

Enter your estimated win probability and the market’s decimal odds. Optionally add your bankroll to see a suggested stake size. Many bettors also use a “half Kelly” to reduce volatility.